Applying Forecasting Techniques

Course duration: 3 Days

Day 1

Forecasting Techniques for the Purchasing Manager

Who should be involved in the forecasting Process?
Roles and Responsibilities
Is forecasting a help or hindrance to the buyer?
Drivers and restrainers
What activities and issues should we forecast?

Sources of information

What information is required to develop forecasts?
Corporate Strategy
Internal Sources
External Sources
Qualitative v Quantitative Data
Future v historical Data

Key principles of forecasting

Creating the right medium for Analysis
Applying the five C’s
Driving possibility to probability
Iterative v single action
Trend identification, Establishment and Mapping
Validation and Application

Methods of determining a realistic forecast

Moving Averages v fixed data
EWAM
Linear Regression
Exponential Smoothing
Delphi
Life cycle Analysis
Scenario Planning
Systems modelling
Strategic Issue Management

Determining which method to use and knowing how to interpret the information

Creating operational forecasting frameworks to be applied in the business

Day 2

Inventory Management/Controlling Stock

The Inventory Environment
Why organisations need to maintain and manage Inventory
Added value or added cost service?

Key Causes of Failure in Managing Stock

Planning, Time and Operational Changes
Tracking
Supplier selection
Transport
Access
Interpretation
Quality
Payments
Consequences of Delivery Failures

Cost Direct and Indirect
Time
Quality

Inventory Management Skills

Communications
Inter-Personal
Negotiation
Legal
Pro-Active

Planning & Control

Systems
ABC
Min-Max
ROPC
MRP
ERP
JIT
Operational Factors
HSE
Layout
Materials Handling Options
Storage and Efficient Materials Flow

Document Management
Redundancy and Obsolescence
Information Management
Scheduling
Strategy, Planning and Operation
Handling Receipts, Returns, Discrepancies and Inspection
Maintaining Control
Creating and Validating Solutions
Avoiding Confrontation

Inventory Management and Measuring Performance

Why, What and When to Measure
Feedback and Improvement Programmes
Actions

Day 3

Master Production Scheduling

Setting up an MRP I process

How the MRP process works
Explaining the jargon Bills of material, static and volatile data, Master Production scheduling, stock record files, action lists and action list processing, slipping and urging, order method
Setting up Static Data
Setting up Volatile data
The meaning of Lead-time in MRP
Setting and managing lead times
Deciding on order methods for different types of demand
Generating the MPS
Typical action lists for purchasing

Differences between MRPI and II

Managing the MPS

Building the MPS
Using Stock orders, Orders on hand, tentative orders, sales orders to create the MPS
Action lists generated by an MPS
The impact of programme changes on the MPS
The impact of changes of the MPS on Purchasing

Practical applications of MPS management

The Do’s and Don’ts in setting up and managing an MPS

The importance of internal and external lead times.
The need to plan accurately
What if scenario’s

Course objectives

Enable staff involved in controlling and managing inventory to understand the key principles and techniques, role and reasoning for the application of good practice and the benefits to the organisation through efficient and effective application within the supply chain.

To also enable buyers to use, interpret and apply the appropriate models and tools to create a “best Practice” methodology for use within the organisation.

Who should attend?

Teams working in inventory rich environments (Manufacturing or MRO) with responsibility for managing inventory and for setting up stores operations and who want an intensive practical hands-on course in current approaches to all aspects so of this key skill.

Duration / Fees

A 3-day single manned course

Can be run over a two or three week cycle – simply ask when booking